"Allen, Roger MacBride - Chronicles of Solace 3 - Shores of Tomorrow" - читать интересную книгу автора (Allen Roger Macbride)

Sparten looked again from DeSilvo to Koffield, and his expression shifted. He blushed, a schoolboy caught out in poor behavior in front of his most respected schoolmaster. УYes, sir. Excuse me, sir.Ф

He paused, took a sip of water from the glass in front of him, and spoke again, in careful, professional tones. УThe results of our examination showed Dr. DeSilvoТs predictions are more than all right. They are highly reliable. We have tested the model by using alternate data sets, as extracted from the copy of the Grand Library on boardDom Pedro IV . We have tested the data by constructing our own predictive model system. Our model was of course much less sophisticated than Dr. DeSilvoТs. His took months or years to create, and ours was something we put together in less than a dayЧbut it was elaborate enough to provide a check, a comparison. We then used our model and the Grand Library dataЧin other words, a complete independent check, none of it based on Dr. DeSilvoТs work. The results werenТt precisely the same as Dr. DeSilvoТsЧthey couldnТt have been, since we were using different algorithms and data and modelsЧbut they were highly similar. They satisfied every statistical check we could make.Ф

УNo outliers?Ф Koffield asked. УNo data runs that were completely outside prediction?Ф

УTwo,Ф said Norla Chandray. УBut they told us nearly as much as the other runs. One was just the randomizers happening to set most of the possible initial variablesЧpolitical instability, disease virulence, speed of technical innovationЧup toward the bad-news end of the scale. That gave us our shortest runЧEarth only lasted eight hundred years. And we did one run where we deliberately forced all the variables to the good-news end of the spectrum. Earth survived so long we thought she was going to make it, but then she crashed hardЧvery hard, the fastest collapse of any run once it did come. The end came at about thirty-one hundred years. Andthat was forcing all the news to be good.Ф

УBut we canТt predict the future!Ф Sindra Chon protested. УWe canТt know for sure that such and such will happen if you set some arbitrary artificial variable to this or that level.Ф

УNo one issaying we can predict the future,Ф said Dixon Phelby. УWe donТt know whatТs going to happen in the next five minutes, let alone three thousand years. But if you examine a large enough system, with enough actions, and at least some sort of understanding of what the rules areЧeven if you donТt understandhow the rules work, or whyЧthen you can get damned good estimates. Maybe you wonТt be able to predict to the millimeter how much rainfall youТll have ten years, three days, and two hours from now nextЧbut maybe youcan say the odds are 90 percent youТll have between three and six centimeters of rain in a given month ten years from now.Ф

УWhich means thereТs a 10 percent chance youwonТt have that much rain,Ф Sindra countered. УThere are reasonable odds that youТll have more, or less, or none.Ф

УTrue enough,Ф said Norla. УBut the results weТre getting would be more like saying that for the period from five to ten years in the future, thereТs a 99.999 chance that it will rain atsome time. The odds are about that high that some variant of the collapse will come. Would you want to gamble that Earth will survive if you were on the other side ofthose odds?Ф

The room was silent, until at last DeSilvo spoke again. УLet us return to the main point at hand,Ф he said gently. He stood up. УMr. SpartenЧdo you believe my results? Do you now think that Earth, and all the other living worlds, are likely to die, from the causes we have discussedЧsometime in the period between eight hundred and three thousand years from now?Ф

Again, silence, until, at last, Yuri Sparten spoke. УYes,Ф he said, with infinite reluctance. УWe need to keep digging, keep studying, keep refining, keep getting dataЧbut that will merely confirm that all the worlds, including Earth, are going to die.Ф

DeSilvo nodded. УThank you,Ф he said. УThose words would be difficult for any of us here, but I know that they were hardest for you, because of who I am. ButЧI am pleased to say that is not the whole story. Yes, all the worlds, including Earth, are going to dieЧunless we, here, those of us around this table, act.Ф He paused dramatically. УFor, you see, I have the answer.Ф

The room was deathly silent at first. DeSilvo looked around, surprised. He plainly had been expecting an excited, enthused reaction. The silence held a few more seconds, then was broken by derisive snorts of laughter.

Koffield looked to Ashdin, and she at him. She shook her head and shrugged, as if to sayWhat else would you expect ?

And Koffield could have answeredVery little else. DeSilvo had as much as promised them some such magic answer, back when they had arrived, a few days ago, in what already seemed another lifetime.WeТve just gotten through agreeing youТre a megalomaniac, Koffield thought as he watched DeSilvo.And now you say that only you know how to save all the living worlds?

УPerhapsЧperhaps that was not the best way to put it,Ф DeSilvo saidЧinspiring a bit more disrespectful laughter, led by Marquez and Bolt. УPlease!Ф The room quieted. УI know, very well, how mad my claim must seem. For what itТs worth, I do not imagine we can do itall . But we can demonstrate a possibility, show it to others.Ф

УA possibility of what?Ф Jerand Bolt demanded.

УA possibility ofЧof hope,Ф DeSilvo said, seeming to flounder a bit.

Koffield watched DeSilvo closely. He looked very much like a man who had expected to electrify his audience and had failed utterlyЧa man who knew he had best get offstage quickly, before anything else could go wrong.

УI will say little else about my plan at present,Ф DeSilvo went on, speaking a bit faster, Уsave only this: WeТll need Greenhouse as a base of operations. There are resources there that are available nowhere else. But, ah, as chance would have it, the attempt to ignite GreenhouseТs new SunSpotЧNovaSpotЧis almost upon us. Much depends on how well that effort succeeds, and I would prefer to delay saying anything else until we know more.Ф

Koffield got the distinct impression that DeSilvo had been casting about for some reason to stallЧand had found it in Ignition Day.

УI have plans to cover all the likely results of the Ignition attempt,Ф DeSilvo went on, still talking fast. УFailure, success, various degrees of partial success. Wecan proceed if Ignition fails, but only with difficulty, and only in a manner far different from what we otherwise would do. The range of possibilities is greatЧbut it will be, ah, greatlyreduced once we know the results of the attempt at Ignition. In the meantime, Mr. Sparten, Officer ChandrayЧget back to your studies. Continue your efforts to prove me wrong.Ф

He stepped back and walked to the door. He paused before leaving, and turned to face them. УAfter we know about Ignition there will be time enough to consider the unhappy chance that I am right,Ф he said. He bowed to them. УUntil news of Ignition, then,Ф he said, and left them all, making an odd and hurried exit.

The room was silent for a moment. Then Jerand Bolt laughed again. He stood up in front of his chair, leaned forward a bit, just as DeSilvo had done, and gestured just as DeSilvo had, reaching up with his right hand to rest his palm on his chest. УFor you see,I have the answer,Ф he said, with an exaggerated theatricality that really wasnТt all that much more overdone than DeSilvoТs had been. He laughed again and dropped back into his seat. УCan youbelieve that guy?Ф

УYes,Ф Koffield replied sadly. УYes, I can.Ф

Bolt was taken aback.УWhat?Ф