"Asimov, Isaac - Prelude to foundation" - читать интересную книгу автора (Asimov Isaac)

"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?"

"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider-Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense."

"What do you mean 'psychohistorical'?"

"I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as 'psychohistory.' "

The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon.

"Stand up!" he commanded.

Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady.

Cleon finally said, "This psychohistory of yours . . . if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?"

"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course-" He paused.

"Well?" said Cleon impatiently.

"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public."

"Unknown!" exclaimed Cleon with surprise.

"It's clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?"

The Emperor's eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. "Wonderful!"

He clapped his hand on Seldon's shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow.

"Don't you see, man?" said Cleon. "Don't you see? There's your use. You don't need to predict the future. Just choose a future--a good future, a useful future--and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one."

Seldon frowned. "I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible."

"Impossible?"

"Well, at any rate, impractical. Don't you see? If you can't start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you can't do the reverse either. You can't start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about."

Cleon looked frustrated. His lips tightened. "And your paper, then? . . . Is that what you call it, a paper? . . . Of what use is it?"

"It was merely a mathematical demonstration. It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way."

"I find that disgusting," said Cleon angrily.

Seldon shrugged slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool?

And indeed, Cleon did not look as though he was very far from believing that.

"Nevertheless," he said, "what if you were to make predictions of the future, mathematically justified or not; predictions that government officials, human beings whose expertise it is to know what the public is likely to do, will judge to be the kind that will bring about useful reactions?"