For the basic theme of scientific thought is that the universe is knowable. Man is not a helpless pawn of forces beyond his own ken. Order can be brought out of chaos. Albert Einstein said it best: "The eternal mystery of the world is its comprehensibility."
Faced, then, with a first-generation technology that threatens to strangle us in its effluvia, we have already turned to science for the basis of a second-generation technology. We have turned to Apollo.
We recognize that it is Apollo's symbol-the dazzling sun-that will be the key to our second-generation technology. The touchstone of all our history has been our ability to command constantly richer sources of energy. Homo erectus's burning bush gave way to fires fueled by coal, oil, natural gas-the fossils of antediluvian creatures. Today we take energy from the fission of uranium atoms.
Tomorrow our energy will come from the sun. Either we will tap the sunlight streaming down on us and convert it into the forms of energy that we need, such as electricity or heat, or we will create miniature suns here on Earth and draw energy directly from them. This is thermonuclear fusion, the energy of the H-bomb. In thermonuclear fusion, the nuclei of light atoms such as hydrogen isotopes are forced together to create heavier nuclei and give off energy. This is the energy source of the sun itself, and the stars. It promises clean, inexpensive, inexhaustible energy for all the rest of human history.
The fuel for fusion is deuterium, the isotope of hydrogen that is in "heavy water." For every six thousand atoms of ordinary hydrogen in the world's oceans,, there is one atom of deuterium. The fusion process is
energetic enough so that the deuterium in one cubic meter of water (about 225 gallons) can yield 450,000 kilowatt-hours of energy. That means that a single cubic kilometer of seawater has the energy equivalent of all the known oil reserves-on Earth. And that is using only one six-thousandth of the hydrogen in the water.
Fusion power will be cheap and abundant enough to be the driving force of our second-generation technology. The gift of Apollo can provide all our energy needs for millions of years into the future.
There will eventually be no further need for fossil fuels or even fissionables. Which in turn means there will be no need to gut our world for coal, oil, gas, uranium. No oil wells. No black lung disease. No problems of disposing of highly radioactive wastes.
The waste products of the fusion process are clean, inert helium and highly energetic neutrons. The neutrons could be a radiation danger if they escape the fusion reactor, but they are far too valuable to let loose, for energetic neutrons are the philosopher's stone of the modern alchemists. They can transform the atoms of one element into atoms of another.
Instead of changing lead into gold, however, the neutrons will be used to transmute light metals such as lithium into the hydrogen isotopes that fuel the fusion reactors. They can also transmute the radioactive wastes of fission power plants into safely inert substances.
The energy from fusion can also be used to make the ultimate recycling system. Fusion "torches" will be able to vaporize anything. An automobile, for example, could be flashed into a cloud of its component atoms iron, carbon, chromium, oxygen, etc. Using apparatus that already exists today, it is possible to separate these elements and collect them, in ultra pure form, for reuse. With effective and efficient recycling, the need for fresh raw materials will go down drastically. The mining and
lumbering industries will dwindle; the scars on the face of the Earth will begin to heal.
Fusion energy will produce abundant electricity without significant pollution, and with thousands of times less radiation hazard than modern power plants. With cheap and abundant energy there need be no such thing as a "have-not" nation. Seawater can be desalted and piped a thousand kilometers inland, if necessary. The energy to do it will be cheap enough. All forms of transportation-from automobiles to spacecraft-will either use fusion power directly or the electricity derived from fusion.
The gift of Apollo, then, can mark as great a turning point in human history as the gift of Prometheus. Like the taming of fire, the taming of fusion will so change our way of life that our descendants a scarce century from now will be hard put to imagine how we could have lived without this ultimate energy source.
Apollo is a significant name for humankind's second wish for another reason, too. Apollo was the title given to humanity's most ambitious exploration program. In the name of the sun-god we reached the moon. Not very consistent nomenclature or mythology, perhaps, but extremely significant for the future of science and the human race.
For to truly fulfill our second wish, we must and will expand the habitat of the human race into space.
We live on a finite planet. We are already beginning, to see the consequences of overpopulation and over consumption of this planet's natural resources. Sooner or later, we must begin to draw our resources from other worlds.
We have already "imported" some minerals from the moon. The cost for a few hundred pounds of rocks was astronomically high: more than $20 billion. Clearly, more efficient modes of transportation must be found, and scientists and engineers are at work on them now.
It is interesting to realize that the actual cost of the
energy it takes to send an average-sized man to the moon and back-if you bought the energy from your local electric utility-is less than $200. There is much room for improvement in our space transportation systems.
Improvements are coming. Engineers are now building the Space Shuttle, which will be a reusable "bus" for shuttling cargo and people into orbit. Fusion energy itself will someday propel spacecraft. Scientists are working on very high-powered lasers that could boost spacecraft into orbit. And the eventual payoff of the esoteric investigations into subatomic physics might well be an insight into the basic forces of nature, an insight that may someday give us some control over gravity.
There is an entire solar system of natural resources waiting for us, once we have achieved economical means of operating in deep space. Many science fiction stories have speculated on the possibilities of "mining" the asteroids, that belt of stone and metal fragments in orbit between Mars and Jupiter.
There are thousands upon thousands of asteroids out there. A single 10-kilometer chunk of the nickel iron variety (which is common) would contain approximately 20 million million tons of high-grade iron. That's 2 X 10'3 tons. Considering that world steel production in 1973 was a bit less than a thousand million tons (109), this one asteroid could satisfy our need for steel for about ten thousand years!
The resources are there. And eventually much of our industrial operations will themselves move into space: into orbit around Earth initially, and then farther out, to the areas where the resources are.
There are excellent reasons for doing so. Industrial operations have traditionally been sited as close as possible to the source of raw material. This is why Pittsburgh is near the Pennsylvania coal fields, and not far from the iron-ore deposits further west. It is cheaper to
transport finished manufactured products than haul bulky raw materials.
The very nature of space offers advantages for many industrial processes. The high vacuum, low gravity, and virtually free solar energy of the space environment will be irresistible attractions to designers of future industrial operations. Also, the problems of handling waste products and pollution emissions will be easier in space than on Earth.
The pressures of social history will push industry off-planet. We cannot afford to cover the Earth with factories. Yet the alternative is a cessation of economic growth-as long as industrial operations are limited to our finite planet.
Although studies such as the MIT/Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth" have urged a stabilized society, human nature usually wants to have its cake and eat it, too. It should be possible to maintain economic growth by expanding off-planet, and thereby avoid the catastrophic effects of polluting our world to death.
What about the ultimate pollution: overpopulation? Will our expansion into space simply allow the human race to continue its population explosion until civilization collapses under the sheer groaning weight of human flesh?
Many science fiction stories have depicted a rigidly stabilized future society, where vocation, recreation, and even procreation are strictly controlled by -the state. Given modern techniques of behavior modification and genetic manipulation, this might someday be possible. Indeed, this is the world that "The Limits to Growth" inevitably leads to.
There is an alternative. In all of human history, the only sure technique for leveling off an expanding population has been to increase the people's standard of living. War, famine, pestilence inevitably lead to a higher birthrate. Modern science has reduced the death rate to the point where even a moderately rising birthrate is a threat to society.
If economic growth can be maintained or even accelerated by expanding the economy into space-and this growth is shared by all people everywhere on Earth-we may have the means for leveling off the population explosion without the repressions that most science fiction writers are haunted by.
Eventually, people will go into space to live. There will be no large-scale migrations-not for a century, at least. But within a few decades, we may see self-sufficient communities in orbit around the Earth, on the moon, and eventually farther out in space.
For the first time since the settling of the Americas, humankind will have an opportunity to develop new social codes. In the strange and harsh environments we will encounter in space, we will perforce evolve new ways of life. Old manners and customs will wither; new ones will arise.
Scientists such as astronomer Carl Sagan look forward to these "experimental communities." They point out that social evolution on Earth is stultified by the success of Western technological civilization. Nearly every human society on this planet lives in a Westernized culture. Variety among human cultures is being homogenized away. The new environment. of space offers an opportunity to produce new types of societies, new ways of life that might teach those who remain on Earth how to live better, more fully, more humanly.
Which brings us to the last of humankind's three wishes, the most important one of all, the wish for the gift of Athena. ,
Athena
The gray-eyed goddess of civilization and wisdom. The warrior-goddess who was born with shield and spear in her hands, but who evolved from Homer's time to Pericles' into a goddess of counsel, of arts and industries, the protectress of cities, the patron deity of Athens.
It is to Athena that we must turn if we are to succeed in our long struggle against the darkness. For human history can be viewed as an attempt to countervene the inevitable chaos of entropy. We succeed as individuals, as a society, as a species, when we are able to bring order out of confusion, understanding out of mystery. Athena, whose symbol is the owl, represents the wisdom and self-knowledge that we so desperately need.
Knowledge we have. And we are acquiring more, so rapidly that people suffer "future shock" from their inability to digest the swift changes flowing across our lives. Wisdom is what we need; the gift of Athena. Self-understanding.
Human beings are understanding-seeking creatures. But when we seek understanding from authorities-in ivied towers of learning, or marbled halls of government, or dark caves of mysticism-we fall short of our goal. Proclamations from authorities are not understanding. When we as individuals give up our quest for understanding and allow others to think and decide for us, we allow the inevitable darkness to gather closer. The brilliant Aegean sunlight is what we seek, and we must turn to Athena's gift of wisdom to find it.
Science will be the crucial factor in finding Athena's gift. As a mode of thinking, a technique for learning and understanding, it is central to our search for self-knowledge.
Our first two wishes were largely focused outside ourselves. They were aimed at manipulating the world outside our skins. Our third and final wish concerns the universe within us: our bodies, our brains, our minds. Until now, scientific research has been mainly concerned with the physical world around us. Physics, chemistry, astronomy, engineering-all deal with the universe that we lay hands on. Even biology and sociology have dealt mainly with matters external to the individual human being. Medical research has been confined to chemistry, mysticism, and sharper surgical tools, until very recently.
But starting with psychology, the major thrust of scientific research has been slowly turning over the past century or so toward the universe inside our flesh.
Molecular biology is delving into the basic mechanics of what makes us what we are: the chemistry of genetic inheritance. Ethnology and psychology are probing the fundamentals of why we behave the way we do: the essence of learning and behavior. Neurophysiology is examining the basic structure and workings of the brain itself: the electrochemistry of memory and thought.
