"Jeff Hecht - The Greenhouse Papers" - читать интересную книгу автора (Hecht Jeff)

The Greenhouse Papers by Jeff Hecht

тАЬWhat puzzles me,тАЭ said Alice as she picked at her salad, тАЬis where the extra carbon goes. The carbon
dioxide budget must have been balanced before people messed it up. Clearing forests, burning fossil
fuels, and other human activities add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. But your model adds a lot more
carbon dioxide than the measured increase.тАЭ

I nodded glumly as I chewed my alfalfa sprouts. My global carbon-cycle project was not going well. The
computer model was supposed to be my stepping stone from a postdoc to a permanent job. Yet even
the university's most powerful Cray couldn't make the numbers add up. тАЬAt least it isn't removing carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere,тАЭ I reminded her.

тАЬYour last run made carbon dioxide increase almost twice as fast as the real measurements,тАЭ Alice
grumbled. тАЬI know there are uncertainties, but they aren't that big. If your numbers were real, the
greenhouse effect would be cooking us already.тАЭ

тАЬDid I hear you talking about the greenhouse effect?тАЭ Professor Andrew Harrison Harding settled his
250 pounds of immaculately groomed and impeccably tailored bulk into an empty chair. His tray was
laden with the faculty club's most fattening specials, rare roast beef, baked potato, and blueberry
cheesecake.

тАЬYes we were, Andrew,тАЭ Alice sighed. тАЬI suppose you're going to tell us that your economic voodoo
rites can make it go away.тАЭ

тАЬNow, now, Miss Morris,тАЭ he returned in his most condescending tone. Alice was a full professor with a
named chair, at least ten years older than the economist, but he never used any of her proper titles. тАЬI
would certainly hesitate to put economic science in the same category with weather forecasting. After all,
we do rely on fundamental principles and laws.тАЭ

Alice arched her eyebrows, holding her response until she finished chewing a slice of cucumber. тАЬI
suppose you do. Weather forecasters have to say which way the wind blows, but you only see it blowing
to the right.тАЭ

тАЬI suppose you claim to be objective?тАЭ he harrumphed. тАЬThe greenhouse effect is just the latest leftist cult
in the physical sciences. You recall the energy crisis, perhaps? Or limits to growth? All futile efforts to
find ways lo stop the continual expansion possible with supply-side economics.тАЭ

тАЬThe buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide is proven by carefully controlled measurements. The
association of warmer global temperatures with increasing carbon dioxide is good enough to pass tests of
statistical significance. Measurements of air preserved in the pores of glacial ice show that carbon dioxide
levels rose at the end of the Ice Age. Would you like the references, Andrew? Or would they go beyond
your ability to manipulate numbers to your advantage?тАЭ

He looked up from his plate. тАЬMy dear Miss Morris, I think you malign me. I distinctly overheard you
say that you couldn't explain where all the carbon went.тАЭ

тАЬSo what does economics have to do with that?тАЭ

тАЬPerhaps that excess carbon is going into consumer goods, produced by the workings of the new
economics. Plastics, certainly,тАЭ he paused to look at his fork, but it was metal. тАЬHousing, furniture,