"Vernor Vinge. The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" - читать интересную книгу автора

powerful as a human brain it is probably foolish to think we'll be
able to create human equivalent (or greater) intelligence. (There is
the far-fetched possibility that we could make a human equivalent out
of less powerful hardware, if we were willing to give up speed, if we
were willing to settle for an artificial being who was literally slow
[30]. But it's much more likely that devising the software will be a
tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation. If
so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not happen till after
the development of hardware that is substantially more powerful than
humans' natural equipment.)

But as time passes, we should see more symptoms. The dilemma felt
by science fiction writers will be perceived in other creative
endeavors. (I have heard thoughtful comic book writers worry about
how to have spectacular effects when everything visible can be
produced by the technologically commonplace.) We will see automation
replacing higher and higher level jobs. We have tools right now
(symbolic math programs, cad/cam) that release us from most low-level
drudgery. Or put another way: The work that is truly productive is the
domain of a steadily smaller and more elite fraction of humanity. In
the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_
technological unemployment finally come true.

Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas
themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will
quickly become commonplace. When I began writing science fiction in
the middle '60s, it seemed very easy to find ideas that took decades
to percolate into the cultural consciousness; now the lead time seems
more like eighteen months. (Of course, this could just be me losing my
imagination as I get old, but I see the effect in others too.) Like
the shock in a compressible flow, the Singularity moves closer as we
accelerate through the critical speed.

And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? What can be
said of its actual appearance? Since it involves an intellectual
runaway, it will probably occur faster than any technical revolution
seen so far. The precipitating event will likely be unexpected --
perhaps even to the researchers involved. ("But all our previous
models were catatonic! We were just tweaking some parameters....") If
networking is widespread enough (into ubiquitous embedded systems), it
may seem as if our artifacts as a whole had suddenly wakened.

And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? I
have only analogies to point to: The rise of humankind. We will be in
the Post-Human era. And for all my rampant technological optimism,
sometimes I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these
transcendental events from one thousand years remove ... instead of
twenty.